News list for " Forecasts"
Trump's trade, fiscal and immigration policy agenda is expected to trigger moderate inflation, BofA analysts wrote, predicting that the changes would be reflected in inflation in the second half of 2025. They noted that any additional tariffs in the coming weeks could bring the timeline forward. "A key question is whether policy changes will affect long-term inflation expectations," they said, adding that market-based measures of inflation remained within historical ranges. BofA reiterated its s...
Many institutional traders expect inflation and tariffs to "dominate" the market...
The latest survey by foreign media shows that economists expect higher inflation and GDP growth in the United States. Click to view...
Bank of America has revised its forecast for the Bank of Japan to raise interest rates in January, or this week, from March. The bank now expects the BoJ to raise interest rates by 25 basis points to 0.50 per cent at its policy meeting this Friday. A rate rise in March had previously been BofA's preferred forecast because it gave the BoJ more time to assess the policies of the new US administration. However, strong price data and the possibility that the BoJ board will need to revise its inflati...
JPMorgan cut its forecast for the number of Fed rate cuts this year from three to two.
The Fed's December meeting notes that staff forecasts that economic conditions in the United States will remain solid. Real GDP growth is expected to slow slightly from the previous baseline forecast, and the unemployment rate is expected to rise slightly, but still close to the staff's estimate of the natural rate of unemployment. In the staff's baseline forecast, the inflation forecast for 2024 is slightly higher than the forecast made at the last meeting, reflecting an unexpected upside from ...
Goldman Sachs said in a report that its forecast for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates this year has been reduced from 1% to 0.75%, and reports of its rebound in underlying inflation have been greatly exaggerated. Core PCE inflation rose by an annualized 2.5% from September to November last year, slightly higher than the 2.3% increase in the previous three months, but lower than the 2.8% year-on-year increase, which is still in line with the phenomenon of continued decline...
Mr. Daly said the Fed was very pleased with its forecast of two rate cuts in 2025, while his own forecast was for much fewer cuts next year than previously expected.
Citi cut its expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cut prospects, expecting only 25 basis points in December, and 50 basis points before the release of the US non-farm payrolls report.
Economists expect the November non-farm payrolls report to show that the U.S. created 200,000 jobs in November, while adding just 12,000 jobs in October due to distortions caused by two hurricanes and the Boeing strike. The unemployment rate is likely to rise slightly to 4.2% in November, compared to 4.1% in October. Meanwhile, average hourly earnings are expected to rise 3.9% in November, following a 4.0% increase in October. Powell said at an event this week that...
